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Thread: Upland bird forecast

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Wichita,KS.
    Posts
    1,144

    Default Upland bird forecast

    Well it's out. I don't think a person is going to make a whole lot of sense out of it until they get out and hunt.Be better off going back and looking at the drought monitor from late spring and focusing on the moderate drought areas in my opinion. Good luck this season fellas.
    https://ksoutdoors.com/Services/Publ...-Bird-Forecast

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    Kansas
    Posts
    106

    Default

    Interesting

  3. #3
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    Nov 2009
    Location
    NE Oklahoma
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    339

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    I feel "fair to good" after reading that.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Rolla Mo
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    234

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    Bought what I expected. I was gone, but NW had stupid amounts of rain this year after a total bust of a wheat crop.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    2,157

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by akp View Post
    I feel "fair to good" after reading that.
    agree, but this report is not much help........the rains came back, but too late for the wheat crop and too much for better nesting success/cover?
    can never win it seems......i am also betting the counts may be off due to huge expanse of cover, due to the summer rains.
    we shall see.....

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    NE Oklahoma
    Posts
    339

    Default

    That's kind of what I was hinting at. I kind of got a laugh how every one was fair to good. That covers a lot and everyone has a different idea of how that will be. I'm sure spotty is the theme. Farmer where we are going has been seeing young birds. They had rain, but it was late and maybe too much. Also had localized hail.

    I'd like to know how the densities today compare to say the late mid to late 2000s. I remember what those hunts were like. We killed birds last year and saw quite a few. I haven't seen any estimates on how the last couple of years would compare. Would they be around half? more? less? I have no idea. Maybe some of you guys could chime in if you have an educated guess....
    Last edited by akp; 09-19-2018 at 12:37 PM.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    100

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by akp View Post
    I'd like to know how the densities today compare to say the late mid to late 2000s. I remember what those hunts were like. We killed birds last year and saw quite a few. I haven't seen any estimates on how the last couple of years would compare. Would they be around half? more? less? I have no idea. Maybe some of you guys could chime in if you have an educated guess....
    I have no idea about densities. I don’t know that Kansas publishes that. In the mid 2000s till 2010 they were harvesting 700K-900K pheasants. Last year (which was down very slightly from 2016) they took about 396K birds. Birds per hunter per day has remained pretty consistent thru the year, though one would suspect there was a lot more 2 hour limiting and seeing large flushes in the good years...

    My feeling after reading the report is that if that’s the best spin the KDWPT can put on it, it must be pretty bleak. I have moments where I wonder if it’s worth investing any money or resources at all in preserving a non-native species that agricultural interests are hell-bent on starving and poisoning out of existence anyway. Maybe we should just lift the seasons and limits and allow hen shooting and see how long the last good time lasts.
    Last edited by s.davis; 09-19-2018 at 03:27 PM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    339

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    I like to read the actual brood survey report, rather than the forecast, which is marketing spin based on the brood survey from the summer and the call counts from the spring. The report is usually published here (but it's not up yet):

    https://ksoutdoors.com/Services/Research-Publications

    You can see the actual data from the brood survey with more geographic detail.

  9. #9

    Default

    Not anywhere close to where we were from 2004-2010. More hail than normal in May and June. With all the rain, I saw farmers spray the cut wheat fields and milo stubble like never before. Won't be much growth in the wheat stubble. Some of those fields got sprayed 2 or 3 times.
    Last edited by westksbowhunter; 09-19-2018 at 07:57 PM.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    2,157

    Default

    [QUOTE=westksbowhunter;244699]Not anywhere close to where we were from 2004-2010. More hail than normal in May and June. With all the rain, I saw farmers spray the cut wheat fields and milo stubble like never before. Won't be much growth in the wheat stubble. Some of those fields got sprayed 2 or 3 times.[/QUOT

    maybe some good news.......my farmer friend says his milo is weed choked, even though he sprayed it........his neighbors are having the same problem......says many are talking about going back to tilling, the way it used to be...ever since no till the birds have declined.....tilling seems a more natural process that keeps chemicals out of the field.

    he did say the heavy rains he got in May/June really knocked the broods way down....knowing where the rains were heavy would be helpful.....if you scout or pull up to your hunting spots and there are signs of heavy erosion, washouts or new culverts/road work you can bet a lot of birds got washed out in that area.

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